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The models are based on extensive experimental data of microbial behavior in liquid microbiological media and food.

There can be no guarantee that predicted values will match those that would occur in any specific food system. Before the models could be used in such a manner, the user would have to validate the models for each specific food of interest.

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Dynamic Predictive Model for Growth of Bacillus cereus from Spores in Cooked Beans (Baranyi Model)

Input Conditions

Note: Q(0) = ln(q0); q0 = 1/(EXP(h0)-1);
Publication value of h0 = 4.8; published values for a and b corrected to 0.002672 and 0.1011.

Line chart of data points for modeled growth. Also available in a table format below the chart.
Modeled Growth Parameters
  • Total Time: 12.00 (hours)
  • Predicted Mean Growth: 1.48 (log10 CFU)
Modeled Growth
Time (h) Temp (°C) Concentration (log10 CFU/g) Growth Rate (log10 CFU/h) MPD (log10 CFU/g)
0.000 54.59 2.00 0.00 7.54
1.000 45.99 2.00 0.63 8.51
2.000 38.94 2.03 0.87 8.94
3.000 32.92 2.18 0.72 9.04
4.000 27.86 2.49 0.52 8.94
5.000 23.43 2.83 0.35 8.71
6.000 19.89 3.08 0.23 8.43
7.000 16.71 3.26 0.14 8.11
8.000 14.14 3.36 0.09 7.80
9.000 11.94 3.43 0.05 7.50
10.000 10.13 3.46 0.02 7.23
11.000 8.48 3.48 0.01 6.96
12.000 7.21 3.48 0.00 6.74

Time-Temperature Data Format
 
This page loads with sample data in the textbox. This format should be followed when entering or pasting data into the textbox. Specifically, please enter cooling profile data as follows:

  • Start with header row (e.g. time(hour), temperature)
  • Enter each data point on a separate line, separated by a comma (e.g. 1.0, 44)
  • Specify time first, in cummulative hours (e.g. 15 minutes = 0.25 hours)
  • Specify temperature second, in the units selected using the radio buttons (°C or °F)
  • A minimum of five (5) data time-temperature points must be provided
  • The time point in row 1 must always be 0 hours
  • Data not following this format will be ignored

If using the Browse button to load the data from a text file, the file must:

  • Follow the same format as above
  • Be in text format (e.g. .txt, .csv)

Clicking on the Calculate Growth Data button will use data provided in the file, if specified, or the data in the textbox if no file is specified. The data from the file will be loaded into the textbox. Please confirm the temperature profile is charted correctly.

Source:

VIJAY K. JUNEJA, ABHINAV MISHRA, AND ABANI K. PRADHAN. Dynamic Predictive Model for Growth of Bacillus cereus from Spores in Cooked Beans. Journal of Food Protection, Vol. 81, No. 2, 2018, Pages 308–315.