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The models are based on extensive experimental data of microbial behavior in liquid microbiological media and food.

There can be no guarantee that predicted values will match those that would occur in any specific food system. Before the models could be used in such a manner, the user would have to validate the models for each specific food of interest.

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Growth Model: Yersinia pseudotuberculosis (Raw Ground Beef)

Input Conditions

Range: 3.5 to 33.5 °C
Line chart of data points for modeled growth rate and MPD. Also available in a table format below the chart.
Modeled Parameters
Temp (C) Growth Rate
log(CFU/g)/hour
MPD
log(CFU/g)
3.5 0.000 5.85
3.6 0.000 5.89
3.7 0.001 5.93
3.8 0.001 5.98
3.9 0.002 6.02
4.0 0.002 6.06
4.1 0.003 6.10
4.2 0.004 6.15
4.3 0.005 6.19
4.4 0.005 6.23
4.5 0.007 6.28
4.6 0.008 6.32
4.7 0.009 6.37
4.8 0.010 6.41
4.9 0.011 6.45
5.0 0.013 6.50
5.1 0.014 6.54
5.2 0.016 6.59
5.3 0.018 6.63
5.4 0.020 6.68
5.5 0.021 6.72
5.6 0.023 6.77
5.7 0.025 6.81
5.8 0.028 6.86
5.9 0.030 6.90
6.0 0.032 6.95
6.1 0.034 6.99
6.2 0.037 7.04
6.3 0.039 7.08
6.4 0.042 7.13
6.5 0.044 7.18
6.6 0.047 7.22
6.7 0.050 7.27
6.8 0.053 7.31
6.9 0.056 7.36
7.0 0.059 7.40
7.1 0.062 7.45
7.2 0.065 7.50
7.3 0.068 7.54
7.4 0.071 7.59
7.5 0.075 7.63
7.6 0.078 7.68
7.7 0.082 7.73
7.8 0.085 7.77
7.9 0.089 7.82
8.0 0.092 7.87
8.1 0.096 7.91
8.2 0.100 7.96
8.3 0.104 8.00
8.4 0.108 8.05
8.5 0.112 8.10
8.6 0.116 8.14
8.7 0.120 8.19
8.8 0.124 8.24
8.9 0.128 8.28
9.0 0.132 8.33
9.1 0.136 8.37
9.2 0.141 8.42
9.3 0.145 8.46
9.4 0.150 8.51
9.5 0.154 8.56
9.6 0.159 8.60
9.7 0.163 8.65
9.8 0.168 8.69
9.9 0.173 8.74
10.0 0.177 8.78
10.1 0.182 8.83
10.2 0.187 8.87
10.3 0.192 8.92
10.4 0.197 8.96
10.5 0.202 9.01
10.6 0.206 9.05
10.7 0.211 9.10
10.8 0.217 9.14
10.9 0.222 9.18
11.0 0.227 9.23
11.1 0.232 9.27
11.2 0.237 9.32
11.3 0.242 9.36
11.4 0.247 9.40
11.5 0.253 9.45
11.6 0.258 9.49
11.7 0.263 9.53
11.8 0.269 9.57
11.9 0.274 9.62
12.0 0.279 9.66
12.1 0.285 9.70
12.2 0.290 9.74
12.3 0.296 9.78
12.4 0.301 9.82
12.5 0.306 9.86
12.6 0.312 9.90
12.7 0.317 9.94
12.8 0.323 9.98
12.9 0.328 10.02
13.0 0.334 10.06
13.1 0.339 10.10
13.2 0.345 10.14
13.3 0.351 10.18
13.4 0.356 10.22
13.5 0.362 10.26
13.6 0.367 10.29
13.7 0.373 10.33
13.8 0.378 10.37
13.9 0.384 10.40
14.0 0.389 10.44
14.1 0.395 10.48
14.2 0.400 10.51
14.3 0.406 10.55
14.4 0.411 10.58
14.5 0.417 10.61
14.6 0.422 10.65
14.7 0.428 10.68
14.8 0.433 10.72
14.9 0.439 10.75
15.0 0.444 10.78
15.1 0.449 10.81
15.2 0.455 10.84
15.3 0.460 10.87
15.4 0.465 10.91
15.5 0.471 10.94
15.6 0.476 10.97
15.7 0.481 10.99
15.8 0.486 11.02
15.9 0.492 11.05
16.0 0.497 11.08
16.1 0.502 11.11
16.2 0.507 11.13
16.3 0.512 11.16
16.4 0.517 11.19
16.5 0.522 11.21
16.6 0.527 11.24
16.7 0.531 11.26
16.8 0.536 11.29
16.9 0.541 11.31
17.0 0.546 11.33
17.1 0.550 11.35
17.2 0.555 11.38
17.3 0.559 11.40
17.4 0.564 11.42
17.5 0.568 11.44
17.6 0.572 11.46
17.7 0.577 11.48
17.8 0.581 11.50
17.9 0.585 11.52
18.0 0.589 11.53
18.1 0.593 11.55
18.2 0.597 11.57
18.3 0.601 11.58
18.4 0.605 11.60
18.5 0.609 11.61
18.6 0.612 11.63
18.7 0.616 11.64
18.8 0.619 11.65
18.9 0.623 11.67
19.0 0.626 11.68
19.1 0.629 11.69
19.2 0.632 11.70
19.3 0.635 11.71
19.4 0.638 11.72
19.5 0.641 11.73
19.6 0.644 11.74
19.7 0.647 11.74
19.8 0.649 11.75
19.9 0.652 11.76
20.0 0.654 11.76
20.1 0.656 11.77
20.2 0.658 11.77
20.3 0.660 11.78
20.4 0.662 11.78
20.5 0.664 11.78
20.6 0.666 11.79
20.7 0.668 11.79
20.8 0.669 11.79
20.9 0.671 11.79
21.0 0.672 11.79
21.1 0.673 11.79
21.2 0.674 11.79
21.3 0.675 11.79
21.4 0.676 11.78
21.5 0.676 11.78
21.6 0.677 11.78
21.7 0.677 11.77
21.8 0.678 11.77
21.9 0.678 11.76
22.0 0.678 11.75
22.1 0.678 11.75
22.2 0.677 11.74
22.3 0.677 11.73
22.4 0.677 11.72
22.5 0.676 11.71
22.6 0.675 11.70
22.7 0.674 11.69
22.8 0.673 11.68
22.9 0.672 11.67
23.0 0.671 11.66
23.1 0.669 11.65
23.2 0.668 11.63
23.3 0.666 11.62
23.4 0.664 11.60
23.5 0.662 11.59
23.6 0.660 11.57
23.7 0.657 11.56
23.8 0.655 11.54
23.9 0.652 11.52
24.0 0.649 11.50
24.1 0.646 11.49
24.2 0.643 11.47
24.3 0.640 11.45
24.4 0.637 11.43
24.5 0.633 11.41
24.6 0.629 11.39
24.7 0.625 11.36
24.8 0.621 11.34
24.9 0.617 11.32
25.0 0.613 11.30
25.1 0.608 11.27
25.2 0.604 11.25
25.3 0.599 11.22
25.4 0.594 11.20
25.5 0.589 11.17
25.6 0.584 11.15
25.7 0.579 11.12
25.8 0.573 11.09
25.9 0.567 11.06
26.0 0.562 11.04
26.1 0.556 11.01
26.2 0.550 10.98
26.3 0.543 10.95
26.4 0.537 10.92
26.5 0.530 10.89
26.6 0.524 10.86
26.7 0.517 10.83
26.8 0.510 10.79
26.9 0.503 10.76
27.0 0.496 10.73
27.1 0.488 10.70
27.2 0.481 10.66
27.3 0.473 10.63
27.4 0.466 10.59
27.5 0.458 10.56
27.6 0.450 10.52
27.7 0.442 10.49
27.8 0.434 10.45
27.9 0.426 10.42
28.0 0.417 10.38
28.1 0.409 10.34
28.2 0.400 10.31
28.3 0.392 10.27
28.4 0.383 10.23
28.5 0.374 10.19
28.6 0.365 10.16
28.7 0.356 10.12
28.8 0.347 10.08
28.9 0.338 10.04
29.0 0.329 10.00
29.1 0.320 9.96
29.2 0.311 9.92
29.3 0.302 9.88
29.4 0.292 9.84
29.5 0.283 9.80
29.6 0.274 9.76
29.7 0.264 9.72
29.8 0.255 9.67
29.9 0.246 9.63
30.0 0.236 9.59
30.1 0.227 9.55
30.2 0.218 9.51
30.3 0.208 9.46
30.4 0.199 9.42
30.5 0.190 9.38
30.6 0.181 9.33
30.7 0.172 9.29
30.8 0.163 9.25
30.9 0.154 9.20
31.0 0.145 9.16
31.1 0.137 9.11
31.2 0.128 9.07
31.3 0.120 9.03
31.4 0.112 8.98
31.5 0.104 8.94
31.6 0.096 8.89
31.7 0.088 8.85
31.8 0.081 8.80
31.9 0.073 8.76
32.0 0.066 8.71
32.1 0.060 8.67
32.2 0.053 8.62
32.3 0.047 8.57
32.4 0.041 8.53
32.5 0.036 8.48
32.6 0.030 8.44
32.7 0.025 8.39
32.8 0.021 8.35
32.9 0.017 8.30
33.0 0.013 8.25
33.1 0.010 8.21
33.2 0.007 8.16
33.3 0.004 8.12
33.4 0.003 8.07
33.5 0.001 8.02
Source:

Bhaduri S., Phillips J. G. Growth Model of a Plasmid-Bearing Virulent Strain of Yersinio Pseudotuberculosis in Raw Ground Beef. (2009) - http://ars.usda.gov/research/publications/Publications.htm?seq_no_115=222661